Recent shifts in trade policy, including new tariffs, retaliatory measures, and rising uncertainties, are beginning to surface in Oregon’s trade data. As barriers to trade amplify, activity slows. And when trade slows, Oregonians lose.

In this changing landscape, Oregon’s trade relationship with Mexico has taken on new significance. Following the implementation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2020, trade between Oregon and Mexico has grown for electronics, machinery, and agricultural products. Stronger protections under USMCA have reinforced Oregon’s competitive position in key industries, while tariff-free access has preserved critical export markets for local producers.

This report examines the latest trade trends and quantifies what’s at stake with Oregon’s connection to the global economy, including its key industries, regions, and communities that stand to be most impacted.

Economic Data

Mapping Oregon’s Export Economy

Approximately 13% of Oregonians are employed in trade-related activities which span sectors like transportation, logistics, warehousing, and export-oriented manufacturing. We define trade-related activities as direct jobs (those in industries explicitly engaged in trade, such as port operations or international freight handling), indirect jobs (those in supplier industries that provide goods and services to those directly engaged in trade), and induced jobs (those in industries that benefit from the wages spent from those in direct and indirect trade jobs). See Figure 1.

Workers in Oregon employed in private sector jobs tied to international trade tend to earn a higher average annual wage than those in non-trade dependent industries. In 2023, the average wage across Oregon’s top trade-related industries was approximately 12% higher than the statewide annual average pay in all industries of $68,283*. This wage differential underscores the economic value of trade-dependent industries and their role in supporting higher-paying employment opportunities across the state.

Small Businesses, Big Trade Impact

When we think of international trade, global giants may come to mind. But in Oregon, it’s the small and mid-sized businesses, with 500 employees or fewer, that anchor our export economy. They’ve quietly dominated the landscape for years, making up 88% of all exporters and $7.12 billion in value. See Figure 2.

Their role goes beyond what’s stamped and shipped. Many are embedded in the supply chains that support Oregon’s trade including supplying parts, materials, and labor that flow into final exported goods. But their smaller scale makes them more exposed. Volatility in global markets, policy shifts, and unexpected tariffs hit harder when margins are thinner and buffers are smaller. Their resilience matters and not just for their own survival, but for the stability of Oregon’s broader trade ecosystem.

Oregon’s Trade Portfolio

In 2024, Oregon was one of just 11 states with a trade surplus in goods, meaning we export more goods than we import. That distinction places us in a select group of states whose industries are reaching global markets at a scale that exceeds what we bring in. It’s a sign of a productive, outward-facing economy.

High-tech manufacturing leads the way. Oregon exported nearly $13 billion in computer and electronic products in the most recent year which is by far the state’s top export category. But Oregon’s export story doesn’t end with semiconductors and circuit boards. We also ship $6.2 billion in machinery, $4.3 billion in transportation equipment, $3.7 billion in chemicals, and $1.8 billion in agricultural products—a diversified export portfolio that spans both urban manufacturing clusters and rural production economies.

And the picture grows even stronger when services are included. In 2022, royalties and license fees, business and professional services, and travel-related services added an additional $6.5 billion in export value. High values in services exports demonstrate that Oregon’s economic connections to the world extend well beyond physical goods. See Figure 3.

Oregon’s exports can be evaluated through two lenses: export value and export volume. When a destination like Mexico accounts for such a large share of Oregon’s export value but a small share of its export volume, it suggests that the state is exporting high-value, low-weight goods, such as motor vehicle parts which contribute significant economic value without taking up much physical space.

In contrast, Japan receives a relatively small share of Oregon’s exports by value but a much larger share by volume. This reflects exports of bulk commodities like wheat, hay, wood products, and seasonal fruits and berries, which are all heavy and space intensive. See Figure 4.

Together, these trading patterns illustrate Oregon’s diverse strengths in both advanced manufacturing and natural resource-based industries, reinforcing the state’s broad economic connections to the global economy.

Oregon’s trade partnerships have evolved significantly over the past several years, reflecting shifts in global supply chains and growing demand for advanced manufacturing. In 2018, Oregon’s top export destinations were China, Canada, and Japan. By 2024, that list had shifted to Mexico, China, and Malaysia.

The scale of that shift is striking: Oregon exported just $464 million in goods to Mexico in 2018. By 2024, that figure had grown to $6.26 billion, accounting for more than 18 percent of the state’s total exports. This increase underscores the strength of Oregon’s role in North American trade and the deepening integration of its industries with global markets. See Figure 5.

Much of this growth has been supported by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which reinforced Oregon’s access to regional markets through modernized trade rules and stronger intellectual property protections. USMCA preserved tariff-free access for Oregon’s exports while also creating a more predictable environment for investment and supply-chain coordination across the continent. However, the emergence of new tariffs and growing trade tensions now threaten to disrupt these gains, injecting uncertainty and placing new pressures on industries that have fueled Oregon’s export growth.

The rapid expansion in trade with Mexico, highlighted by the jump from $464 million in 2018 to $6.26 billion in 2024, has made the country one of Oregon’s top export destinations. Motor vehicle parts saw especially strong growth, accounting for roughly 10 percent of the value of all goods exported across the state. This category includes components such as motor vehicle electrical and electronic equipment, many of which support cross-border automotive supply chains. The only commodity category to decline over this period was agriculture, construction, and machinery, signaling a potential shift in trade composition and industry demand. See Figure 6.

Oregon’s import relationships have evolved notably in recent years. While trade with countries like Japan, Canada, Israel, Germany, and Vietnam remained relatively consistent between 2018 and 2024, other partnerships saw significant shifts.

One of the largest changes was with Taiwan. Oregon imported $435 million in goods from Taiwan in 2018, a figure that surged to $4.5 billion by 2024, making up more than 15 percent of the state’s total imports. This growth reflects increased demand for semiconductors and component parts, and points to Oregon’s growing role in global advanced manufacturing supply chains.

In contrast, imports from China declined. In 2018, nearly 17% of all goods imported to Oregon came from China but by 2024, that share had dropped to less than 10%. See Figure 7.

Together, these trends highlight Oregon’s adaptive trade landscape and its deep integration into international supply networks, particularly in technology and manufacturing.

Why Trade Matters to Oregon

Oregon’s economy is deeply rooted in global trade and therefore deeply exposed to changing conditions. With new and proposed tariffs escalating, the stakes are high for the state’s exporters, especially in sectors like semiconductors and agriculture. These aren’t abstract risks. They show up in redirected trade routes, shrinking market share, and squeezed margins. Retaliatory tariffs, shifts in sourcing, and the unpredictability of trade policy can all destabilize the finely tuned logistics and supply chains that Oregon businesses rely on.

New rounds of tariffs could continue to amplify these challenges. Strategic coordination among regional partners, export diversification, and infrastructure investments aren’t just defensive tools but are Oregon’s best bet to stay competitive in a volatile global economy.