Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill on Oregon's economy

On Thursday, October 16, the Portland Metro Chamber hosted a Breakfast Forum keynote speaker and discussion panel addressing the federal budget reconciliation bill H.R.1—otherwise known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which became law in July—and its impact on Oregon’s economy across a variety of sectors.

Mike Evans, partner with K&L Gates, presented an initial overview of the bill. The speaker panel featured Ryan J. Kuenzi , principal at Baker Tilly; Jeremiah Rigsby, Chief of Staff at CareOregon; Greg Alderson, Director of Government Affairs at PGE; and Elizabeth Hayes of the Portland Business Journal as moderator.

Macro effects of the bill

Mike Evans highlighted the following macro effects of the bill in the next ten years:

$4.4 trillion in tax cuts
$1.0 trillion in spending cuts
$3.4 trillion deficit increase

Takeaways and insights in the following four areas were highlighted by our panelists.

Healthcare

Nationally, H.R.1 cuts over $1 trillion from Medicaid over the next ten years. It is predicted to result in an additional 10 million people being uninsured by 2034.
In Oregon, approximately 1.4 million people are enrolled in Medicaid. H.R.1 is predicted to result in an additional 210,000 Oregonians being uninsured over the next ten years.
H.R.1 will cut $1 billion from the state’s Medicaid budget (since 70% of Oregon’s Medicaid funding comes from the federal government), jeopardizing health coverage for more than 500,000 Oregonians.
Cuts to Medicaid and other healthcare programs will raise the cost of healthcare premiums, deductibles, and copays; close hospitals and clinics; require an enormous administrative infrastructure to manage changes; and, at the same time, eliminate jobs.

Taxes

Since 1997, Oregon has operated under a “rolling reconnect” tax policy, meaning the state’s tax code automatically adjusts whenever Congress changes the federal tax code. There is a significant benefit to this direct connection—it makes life easier on taxpayers to file taxes.
Due to federal tax cuts in H.R.1 (such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime), Oregon now faces a budget deficit of $888 million.
Some advocates have called for Oregon to disconnect its tax policy from the federal tax code to maximize tax revenue.

Energy

20-40% of federal tax credits go towards reducing the cost of energy projects. With the removal of these credits, the cost of infrastructure projects will increase significantly, thereby increasing costs to consumers.
The most significant short-term impact for the energy sector is the cost impact for wind and solar power.
PGE and other companies are attempting to fast-track clean energy projects that can capture cost savings while they are still available—before the H.R.1 deadlines.
H.R.1’s tax provisions with respect to energy impact not only utilities for customers, but also energy developers and the broader energy sector, which touches every other sector of our economy. The impact on energy developers will hurt employment and be felt in the tax base when projects don’t go forward.

SNAP

Nationally, H.R.1 cuts $18 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) over the next ten years.
H.R.1 will increase SNAP’s share of the state budget by 202% and cost-sharing by 15%.
The Oregon Department of Human Services estimates this will impact 313,000 people.